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Strategic Electric Sector
Assessment Methodology under Sustainability Conditions |
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Principal Investigators MIT:
S.Connors, J.Tester, E.Drake ETH: A.Gheorghe EPFL: P.Haldi,
M.von Spakovsky PSI: S.Hirschberg
The identification,
design and implementation of “sustainable energy systems” is a key
element towards successfully approaching “sustainable development”.
SESAMS seeks to develop the fundamental strategic analytic
capabilities necessary to identify the sustainable production and
use of electricity over the next several decades, primarily via the
integration of existing and innovative models and analytic
approaches as well as those currently under development.
Goals/Objectives SESAMS is comprised of three core
analytic elements;
1. horizontal electric sector simulation 2.
vertical life cycle assessment 3. decision support
analysis The main goal of this research effort is to
assist the overall decision-making process through the
identification of innovative technologies and policies. To address
long-term sustainability related issues, portfolios of energy
options and policy initiatives will be examined over several
decades. Although initially exercised for Switzerland and the
Northeaster US, the proposed analytic framework has now been
expanded to Ukraine.
- Extend the current horizontal electric sector simulation
capabilities demonstrated for New England by AGREA and for
Switzerland by SESAMS-SUP, to include longer-term evolutionary and
revolutionary supply and demand-side technologies and address the
impacts on technology choice and utilization that electric sector
liberalization might have.
- To extend the geographic and technology range of the LCA
capabilities developed by PSI via the GaBE project
- Through continued interaction with the New England and Swiss
stakeholder advisory groups, further develop decision support
tools which enhance the dissemination of complex technical
information and facilitate the design and selection of sustainable
energy strategies.
- Via the execution of the previous three items develop a robust
analytic framework that can then be used to identify analogous
sustainable energy strategies for regions in developing and
re-industrializing countries.
- Leverage and enhance additional educational and research
activities via the dissemination of the knowledge and analytic
tools developed within SESAMS, beyond the advisory groups and
participating AGS institutions, to the community at
large.
Results/Findings
- The SESAMS models are being used extensively in the CETP
project in China.
- SESAMS working Paper No. 1: Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute
Tradeoff Analysis for Use in Policy Dialogue Energy-Mix Planning:
New England USA Case Studies.
- Strategic Electric Sector Assessment Methodology under
Sustainability Conditions: A Swiss Case Study
- Impact Assessment of Electricity Generation Strategies on the
Labour Market for the Case of Switzerland Using a
Technico-Econometric General Equilibrium Model
- Climate Change and Competition – On a Collision Course? (is
this a paper?)
- Technology Development and Deployment in a Competitive
Electric Industry.
- Develop a comprehensive methodology to address sustainable
development strategies for electricity generation.
- Extending and augmenting the initial methodology of SESAMS for
the case of China
- Making the SESAMS methodology as well as results from the Case
Studies visible to the World Energy Council
- Introducing the SESAMS methodology to countries with economies
in transition (Romania) in order to address policy recommendations
- Developing a new methodology for quantitative vulnerability
assessment for critical infrastructures with due applicability to
sustainable development strategies
- Development of tools, e.g. decision support systems for i.
assessing viable electricity generation strategies for sustainable
development ii. vulnerability assessment of technologies, systems,
electricity development strategic policies, iii. Involvement of
stakeholders for addressing sustainable development policies in a
more democratic and participative
environment.
Findings/Results
- The transition to a sustainable energy future, whether
beginning with a clean energy system (Switzerland), or a dirty one
(China, Romania) requires strong coordination in both design and
implementation. Institutional capacity in long-term infrastructure
management is essential, and must included existing system
components and their use, not just the selection of new
technologies. Loss of such long-term goal setting, and the
policies that encourage/discourage various technological choices,
has been occurring due to increased competition in the energy
sectors. Such project therefore provide balancing knowledge to the
market, where before there was centralized planning.
- Policy relevant research is dependent on good stakeholder
interactions. Good stakeholders are hard to find. Most of the
above projects (SESAMS, CETP) have had stakeholder audiences, to
some degree. Early input by stakeholders has been quite valuable,
ensuring that the studies are policy relevant. However, such
complex research topics are inherently back loaded when it comes
to the creation and dissemination of integrated results. In order
to be both policy relevant and policy informative, AGS researchers
need to both retain the participation of initial stakeholders
throughout the entire project, as well as work to disseminate
research results to not only these stakeholders, but their
technical staffs and other interested parties within the case
study region (and beyond).
- Communicating complexity is essential. The above projects, in
addition to highlighting the challenges inherent in the transition
to a sustainable energy sector, emphasize the long-term portfolio
aspects of such transitions. This includes both the complexities
of problems (climate change, acid deposition, water and resource
use), and their likely solutions (turnover in capital stock, rapid
versus slow changes, financial and institutional implications,
etc.) Decision-makers need to understand these complexities in
order to do a good job.
- Communicating uncertainties. Building upon communicating
complexity, such transitions to a sustainable energy future will
be conducted in a world of great uncertainty. These include
scientific uncertainty (adequate emissions reduction goals),
economic uncertainty (economic growth rates and the cost of
borrowing), political and institutional uncertainty, and
technological uncertainty (Will cheaper cleaner technologies
continue to be developed? Will they perform as advertised?). The
identification of “robust” transition paths is essential.
- Prescriptive results require good base information. Currently
the models and methodologies employed by AGS researchers are
better than the data or information used to run them. Performing
these studies also communicates to regional stakeholders the value
of quality, relatively high resolution, long time series
information. Over the long term these “background lessons” of the
value of quality information and having the institutions to
collect, clean and disperse them will become more evident. The
current situation is not dire, with researchers having
successfully moved from “garbage in, garbage out” to “guesses in,
guidance out” by extending the range of analysis under
quantitative uncertainty. The next step however will be more
difficult. Such information will be required not only to increase
environmental stewardship, but also to monitor the progress and
effectiveness of various solutions. Over time research results
will need not only to be policy relevant, but policy
prescriptive.
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