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Strategic Electric Sector Assessment Methodology under Sustainability Conditions
 
Principal Investigators
MIT: S.Connors, J.Tester, E.Drake
ETH: A.Gheorghe
EPFL: P.Haldi, M.von Spakovsky
PSI: S.Hirschberg

The identification, design and implementation of “sustainable energy systems” is a key element towards successfully approaching “sustainable development”. SESAMS seeks to develop the fundamental strategic analytic capabilities necessary to identify the sustainable production and use of electricity over the next several decades, primarily via the integration of existing and innovative models and analytic approaches as well as those currently under development.

Goals/Objectives
SESAMS is comprised of three core analytic elements;
1. horizontal electric sector simulation
2. vertical life cycle assessment
3. decision support analysis
The main goal of this research effort is to assist the overall decision-making process through the identification of innovative technologies and policies. To address long-term sustainability related issues, portfolios of energy options and policy initiatives will be examined over several decades. Although initially exercised for Switzerland and the Northeaster US, the proposed analytic framework has now been expanded to Ukraine.
  • Extend the current horizontal electric sector simulation capabilities demonstrated for New England by AGREA and for Switzerland by SESAMS-SUP, to include longer-term evolutionary and revolutionary supply and demand-side technologies and address the impacts on technology choice and utilization that electric sector liberalization might have.
  • To extend the geographic and technology range of the LCA capabilities developed by PSI via the GaBE project
  • Through continued interaction with the New England and Swiss stakeholder advisory groups, further develop decision support tools which enhance the dissemination of complex technical information and facilitate the design and selection of sustainable energy strategies.
  • Via the execution of the previous three items develop a robust analytic framework that can then be used to identify analogous sustainable energy strategies for regions in developing and re-industrializing countries.
  • Leverage and enhance additional educational and research activities via the dissemination of the knowledge and analytic tools developed within SESAMS, beyond the advisory groups and participating AGS institutions, to the community at large.

Results/Findings
  • The SESAMS models are being used extensively in the CETP project in China.
  • SESAMS working Paper No. 1: Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Tradeoff Analysis for Use in Policy Dialogue Energy-Mix Planning: New England USA Case Studies.
  • Strategic Electric Sector Assessment Methodology under Sustainability Conditions: A Swiss Case Study
  • Impact Assessment of Electricity Generation Strategies on the Labour Market for the Case of Switzerland Using a Technico-Econometric General Equilibrium Model
  • Climate Change and Competition – On a Collision Course? (is this a paper?)
  • Technology Development and Deployment in a Competitive Electric Industry.
  • Develop a comprehensive methodology to address sustainable development strategies for electricity generation.
  • Extending and augmenting the initial methodology of SESAMS for the case of China
  • Making the SESAMS methodology as well as results from the Case Studies visible to the World Energy Council
  • Introducing the SESAMS methodology to countries with economies in transition (Romania) in order to address policy recommendations
  • Developing a new methodology for quantitative vulnerability assessment for critical infrastructures with due applicability to sustainable development strategies
  • Development of tools, e.g. decision support systems for i. assessing viable electricity generation strategies for sustainable development ii. vulnerability assessment of technologies, systems, electricity development strategic policies, iii. Involvement of stakeholders for addressing sustainable development policies in a more democratic and participative environment.

Findings/Results
  • The transition to a sustainable energy future, whether beginning with a clean energy system (Switzerland), or a dirty one (China, Romania) requires strong coordination in both design and implementation. Institutional capacity in long-term infrastructure management is essential, and must included existing system components and their use, not just the selection of new technologies. Loss of such long-term goal setting, and the policies that encourage/discourage various technological choices, has been occurring due to increased competition in the energy sectors. Such project therefore provide balancing knowledge to the market, where before there was centralized planning.
  • Policy relevant research is dependent on good stakeholder interactions. Good stakeholders are hard to find. Most of the above projects (SESAMS, CETP) have had stakeholder audiences, to some degree. Early input by stakeholders has been quite valuable, ensuring that the studies are policy relevant. However, such complex research topics are inherently back loaded when it comes to the creation and dissemination of integrated results. In order to be both policy relevant and policy informative, AGS researchers need to both retain the participation of initial stakeholders throughout the entire project, as well as work to disseminate research results to not only these stakeholders, but their technical staffs and other interested parties within the case study region (and beyond).
  • Communicating complexity is essential. The above projects, in addition to highlighting the challenges inherent in the transition to a sustainable energy sector, emphasize the long-term portfolio aspects of such transitions. This includes both the complexities of problems (climate change, acid deposition, water and resource use), and their likely solutions (turnover in capital stock, rapid versus slow changes, financial and institutional implications, etc.) Decision-makers need to understand these complexities in order to do a good job.
  • Communicating uncertainties. Building upon communicating complexity, such transitions to a sustainable energy future will be conducted in a world of great uncertainty. These include scientific uncertainty (adequate emissions reduction goals), economic uncertainty (economic growth rates and the cost of borrowing), political and institutional uncertainty, and technological uncertainty (Will cheaper cleaner technologies continue to be developed? Will they perform as advertised?). The identification of “robust” transition paths is essential.
  • Prescriptive results require good base information. Currently the models and methodologies employed by AGS researchers are better than the data or information used to run them. Performing these studies also communicates to regional stakeholders the value of quality, relatively high resolution, long time series information. Over the long term these “background lessons” of the value of quality information and having the institutions to collect, clean and disperse them will become more evident. The current situation is not dire, with researchers having successfully moved from “garbage in, garbage out” to “guesses in, guidance out” by extending the range of analysis under quantitative uncertainty. The next step however will be more difficult. Such information will be required not only to increase environmental stewardship, but also to monitor the progress and effectiveness of various solutions. Over time research results will need not only to be policy relevant, but policy prescriptive.